[Quads]

My brother found this odds calculation for those of us that are not mathematical geniuses and able to calculate the real formula in our heads. As it says it is not exact, but it should be close enough to make an informed decision.

4/2 Method for Calculating Odds -
When there are two cards left to come, multiply your outs by 4. When there is one card left to come, multiply your outs by two.

For example: After the flop with two cards to come (turn and river) multiply your outs by 4.

If you have two outs, you have roughly an 8% (2 * 4 = chance of making your hand

For example: After the turn with one card to come (River) multiply your outs by 2.

If you have 2 outs, you have roughly a 4% (2 * 2 = 4) chance of making your hand.

While the 4/2 method is not exact, it will get you close enough to the true odds to make a decision on whether or not to continue playing a hand.

 

[Ace-in-Space]

This is a good approximating system for after the flop and turn. The only thing you need to know is that on the higher end (i.e., when you have lots of outs, like a straight flush draw with possible 15 outs) your real winning percent isn't as high as the 4/2 system since you don't have 60% winner with 2 cards to come (you are still a favoriet at slightly over 50%). On the lower end (i.e., two or four out hands) your winning percentage is slightly higher than the 4/2 system. I am sure you are familiar with watching poker on TV that the winning percentage for two out hands is 5% instead of 4% with one card to come.

 

[Moddy]

heh....odds.....pffft.... According to most of the knobs @ my house, you have to "feel" it. After all, their 2 cards are just as good as anyone elses 2 cards, right?

 

[poker_hitman]

Odds

Phil Gordon speaks of the same way to calculate odds in his new poker book.

hitman

 

[Ace-in-Space]

By no means is Phil Gordon the originator of the idea. The concept was presented in the Card Player magazine at least 3 years ago (although I forgot who the author of the article was.

 

[Quads]

I think it was invented a littler earlier than 3 years ago. Back when they started talking about "probability" and "statistics"... that whole math thing.... I don't know, maybe 10 years?

 

[Ace-in-Space]

Quads, I don't mean probability theory. I mean specifically the 4% per out estimate.