Poker Hand From Yesterday - WWYD

[2_hotty]

I shove.

[timsta007]

Thanks for the chastise Mike about calling on the flop with bottom pair. We aren't here to discuss if that was the right play or not (incidentally, in this group it is the right play in that spot because so many people will pay off a big bet with just a flopped top pair).

Lots of good responses here, obviously it's hard to have as good a sense of the situation just from my summary description of it. Here's the hand range I put the guy on: 1) The most likely hand here I think is two pair. Could be Q5 but I think A5 or AQ is likely, 2) easily could be a flopped set, probably 5's or 2's, 3) could be a straight but it's a play most people wouldn't make there turning the nuts and opening so hard... most people want to get money out of it, 4) could be KQ or QJ or QT and getting stubborn that nobody folded on the flop, 5) lastly could be just a donkey shove trying to pick up the pot with a marginal hand.

These two quotes were pretty spot on to my line of thinking...

Originally Posted by Hirize

With no knowledge of this player you let him have it. Fold.

Originally Posted by Doctor_XXX

Two pair is just way too beatable for a $52+150+??? pot. I'd fold, maybe asking if he'd show if you fold, etc. He MAY give you the info "for free" (aka $13).

So after thinking for a long time I folded. The rationale is that in order to make the call there, I have to know I'm ahead or that he's bluffing and hope he fires again on the river. If I raise I'm nearly committing my stack and could be drawing to 4 or 2 outs if he has better two pair, trips, or a straight. If he has any of those hands he insta-shoves and I know I'm fucked. The best case scenario if I raise is that he folds and I take the pot and his bet ~$125 but I lose out on the huge pot that I'm hoping for. Lastly I've only put $13 into the pot so far, I know I can get my stack in with better holdings and far less risk to my bankroll.

So I folded. After a little cajoling the villain turned over pocket J's. I told him nice bet and showed him that I'd folded A2. A discussion between me and one of the tighter and more solid players at the table ensued where he told me I was crazy for folding that. I have to assume he's played with the villain much more than I have and has a better player profile on the guy, but given the situation I think I made the right choice to fold, even though it ended up being the wrong play once the hands were exposed. I think the critical game theory to consider is in the paragraph above. If I raise I probably either win no more than what's in the pot or I'm crushed a probably lose the rest of my stack, and it's a super weak/passive play to just call and then have to call whatever he bets on the river with no read. Seeing as both calling and raising have limited EV in the long run (and considering the lack of read) and that I'd only put $13 in the pot thus far, I'm pleased with the choice I made even though it turned out to be wrong in this particular situation.

[Doctor_XXX]

Like I wrote, "what are you going to do on the NEXT street?" is the big question. You hit it pretty well...if you KNEW you were ahead, that's one thing, but the way he played the hand, it was quite likely he had you beat, or had some outs to beat you later. All-in or fold were your plays, but really an all-in by you is just begging for a call. With 2 pair, that's a little sketchy.

He made a good bet. It got you to think about it, and got you to fold the (current) best hand too. But, you got the info you wanted, and it only cost you 13 bucks. Plus, you showed that you were capable of laying down a decent hand, which you MIGHT be able to use to your advantage later. It was just one hand, you lost a few big blinds on it, you got some player info, and you move on. There were so many possibilities that could have destroyed your stack. To me, it AA22Q just isn't worth a $200+ commitment.

Good (safe) play on your part. You live to fight another day!

[timsta007]

Yeah, actually I think he made a really stupid bet. I could have easily smooth called on the flop with a set of 55's and just let him hang himself after the $75 turn bet debacle. But it worked in this situation to the tune of a $40 profit, lol.

I'm glad he showed. It's not really good information other than the guy is capable of making a big bet in a random situation. It will definitely factor into future hands against him.

[2_hotty]

His little raise pre flop, and minor flop bet had me slightly baffled. The reason I said shove is his turn bet. That bet screamed "please fold" to me. Thats a big bet for someone with no fear looking for value. I was thinking Kings, that got pissed at the ace. Maybe I play more aggro then most, because that seemed like a shove to me immediately.

[timsta007]

Originally Posted by 2_hotty

His little raise pre flop, and minor flop bet had me slightly baffled. The reason I said shove is his turn bet. That bet screamed "please fold" to me. Thats a big bet for someone with no fear looking for value. I was thinking Kings, that got pissed at the ace. Maybe I play more aggro then most, because that seemed like a shove to me immediately.

Yeah that was a good instinct I think. Not sure if it makes a difference but he wasn't the preflop raiser interestingly. He limp called the preflop bet. Very very strange play.

[T v2.0]

Damn! I wanted the guy to have had Q5, then take you to the wood shed for "sucking out" on him.

Soooooo....how much you lose on the night?

T

[Richard Cranium]

From OP I was thinking he was the BB, and based on small play before hand you had seen, that he was making a very small *read bad* raise to $5 preflop with four other players sure to come along, with either AQ or QQ.

Then I thought, Timsta, the King of the "BBFIDTS" post, would not post such a hand.

I think the fold was the right play because the turn bet relative to your stack and what you had already put into the hand was not the right spot, like you said. There were going to be other plays later, better to be patient.

But at the same time, if this guy called preflop, then flat called the BB raise preflop without 3 more to act behind him after that BB raise, I can't put him on any kind of large hand. Play is too weak preflop with that many in the hand. At best he has 55 in the hole for a flopped set. That's the only hand I could see him having unless its a bluff. I'm surprised by the JJ preflop play too.

I'd say keep playing with this guy.

[timsta007]

Originally Posted by Richard Cranium

I'd say keep playing with this guy.

You seriously have no idea. I said the group was relatively soft... They also happen to all be extremely well off. Yesterday's game was hosted in one of the guy's office suite and he is a partner in a wealth management firm. One of the conference rooms had over a hundred signed sports memorabilia like footballs, jerseys, etc. from players that are, or had been clients. People like Shaquille O'Neal, Larry Fitzgerald, Justin Rose, and so many others.

At the break there was a very serious discussion among several players debating the benefits of a private jet vs. a private helicopter. LOL.

The best news is that I've stopped worrying about taking too much money out of the game. Most of these people could drop $500-600 in an evening and that would compare to me having a bad night at the 5c/10c kiddie game down the street.

Originally Posted by T v2.0

Soooooo....how much you lose on the night?

Up about $250 in the cash game, down $150 from the sit and go. Over 4 sessions with this group I'm up about $1500.

[Richard Cranium]

I used to play in a couple games in Ashburn, VA like that. We called it "cashburn". the problem was you had to pick spots though and be patient because like you said, these guys could dust off large stacks and just re-buy and not be rocked by it. They'd make crazy plays at times that were high variance. But if you hit a few beats or got out of line when they did have a hand, it was easy to lose the little amount of equity I did have available very quickly.

Great place to find yourself. Nice little problem to have!